Will Interest Rates Fall in 2026 — And Will It Be a Good Time to Buy?

One of the biggest questions I’m getting from clients lately is: Should I wait until interest rates drop in 2026 to buy, or is now a better time? The answer isn’t simple — it depends on your goals, timing, and risk tolerance. But here’s what the data and market signals suggest — and how you can use them to your advantage.

Where Rates Seem Headed

What the experts are forecasting

• Many forecasts expect 30‑year fixed mortgage rates to gradually decline through 2026, though not necessarily to the ultra‑low levels seen in past years.

• For example, Fannie Mae revised its outlook and now expects year‑end 2026 rates around 6.2% (a modest drop).

• Others, such as the Mortgage Bankers Association, anticipate a more tempered decline — still in the mid‑6 percent range for much of 2026.

• A key wild card is inflation: if inflation remains sticky, the Fed might be more cautious in cutting rates, delaying deeper relief for mortgage borrowing costs.

• Another factor is the “lock‑in effect” — many homeowners with very low rates are reluctant to sell, which suppresses inventory. That shortage could keep house prices firm even if rates ease slightly.

Implication: Rates are unlikely to plummet overnight. A gradual descent is more probable, meaning 2026 may offer somewhat better mortgage terms — but not dramatic ones.

Should You Wait or Jump In Now?

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, but here are key pros and cons to weigh:

Strategy	Pros	Cons / Risks	Best For
Buy Now	Lock in a home before prices steeply rise; start building equity; possibly refinance later if rates drop	You might pay a higher rate than what’s possible later; comparatively tighter budgets under higher rates	People who have solid finances, long time horizons, or strong need to move
Wait Until 2026	Potentially lower rates (if forecasts hold); more negotiating leverage if inventory improves	Prices may continue upward; competition could intensify; you risk missing out on current opportunities	Buyers not in a rush and able to monitor rate trends closely

A few extra points to consider:

• The difference between a 0.5% change in rate can cost or save you tens of thousands over a mortgage’s life. Even if rates fall a bit, if home prices rise too strongly in the meantime, the benefit may be offset.

• Always run “what-if” scenarios: e.g. — what does your payment look like if rates drop 0.5% in 2 years, versus if you lock in now and refinance later?

• Consider flexibility: adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), temporary rate buydowns, or other strategies might help bridge between high present rates and future relief.

• For military families relocating (like many of my clients), timing constraints may make waiting less practical. It’s often better to find a solid option now than to gamble on future rate drops.

In the Context of OKC / Tinker AFB Moves

Because I work with service members relocating here, a few local and personal factors matter:

• Your window for move, school calendar, or assignment orders may force your timing.

• In markets like Oklahoma City, where supply is improving but still tight, the better deals may go fast once buyer demand ramps up.

• Even if rates dip modestly in late 2026, there’s always the option to refinance — but you can’t buy in and then refinance if you never make the purchase.

• For downsizers or sellers, locking in equity now while rates are still relatively elevated may help buffer against market shifts later.

My Take (for Many Clients)

Given what the forecasts suggest, waiting for a dramatic drop in interest rates likely isn’t the best strategy for most buyers who have a reasonable timeline and stable finances. A more realistic expectation is a modest decline over 2025–2026. If you find a home you love, with terms and location that make sense, buying now (or within the next year) and potentially refinancing later could give you both stability and upside.

If your situation allows some patience, waiting until the latter half of 2026 — when rates might be a bit more favorable and housing inventory might loosen a little — could give you an edge. But it’s a fine line: don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.